Tag Archives: india

Greek Debt Unsustainable: the Wikileaks Cables

Greek protests in front of Greek parliament

2011 Euro-crisis, Wikileaks Cables

Discussing the Greek financial crisis with her personal assistant on 11 October, German Chancellor Angela Merkel professed to be at a loss as to which option–another haircut or a transfer union–would be best for addressing the situation. (The term “haircut” refers to the losses that private investors would incur on the current net value of their Greek bond holdings.) Merkel’s fear was that Athens would be unable to overcome its problems even with an additional haircut, since it would not be able to handle the remaining debt. Furthermore, she doubted that sending financial experts to Greece would be of much help in bringing the financial system there under control. Within the German cabinet, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schnaeuble alone continued to strongly back another haircut, despite Merkel’s efforts to rein him in, while France and European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso were seen to be in favor of a gentler approach. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet was solidly opposed, with IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde described as undecided on the issue. Finally, Merkel believed that action must be taken to enact a Financial Transaction Tax (FTT); doing so next year, she assessed, would be a major step toward achieving some balance in relief for banks. In that regard, the Germans thought that pressure could be brought to bear on the U.S. and British governments to help bring about an FTT.

Euro-crisis Wikileaks Cables: EU Summit: Germans Prepared to Oppose Special Solutions for Greek Financial Crisis

…German Chancellery Director-General for EU Affairs Nikolaus Meyer-Landrut provided on 14 October, 2011 an overview of what Berlin planned to ask for and would be prepared to support. First, the German government wanted solutions that work within the context of current European legislation; accordingly, it would not agree to giving the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) a banking license, establishing a joint EFSF-European Central Bank Special Purpose Vehicle, or any other measures that would require legislative changes among the member states. On the other hand, the Germans would support a special IMF fund into which the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) nations would pool funds for the purpose of bolstering eurozone bailout activities. Meyer-Landrut also believed that a resolution of the Greek crisis will require greater private-sector involvement than was first thought, and that the eurozone must look beyond the technical aspects of a deal and focus instead on the actual progress that Greece will have to make, as regards both legislation and implementation. It was his further opinion that a full-term team will have to be ensconced in Athens for the purpose of monitoring the situation.

Bay of Bengal: ports against fishing

Strait_of_Malacca. Image from wikipedia

Bangladesh’s Chittagong, has… become a bottleneck. The Bangladeshis are modernising it… China is putting $200m towards upgrading the airport at Cox’s Bazar, the country’s southernmost tip, to attract investment and tourists.

Myanmar’s …new government, keen for foreign inflows to help rebuild the economy, has been approving projects that sat idle for years. Sittwe is one, but it looks small compared with the Dawei project on Myanmar’s Tenasserim coast… a deepwater port, industrial zone and highways to connect it with distant Bangkok, estimated to cost $8.5 billion.Thailand’s rulers dabbled for centuries with the idea of building a canal across the Kra isthmus, which would link their own gulf directly to the Andaman Sea and save days of costly shipping through the Strait of Malacca. Dawei should do the trick…. The Japanese are taking advantage of Myanmar’s opening to build a riverine port called Thilawa, south of Yangon.

The Chinese are exploring ways round their own Malacca-strait dilemma. They have been building new oil and gas pipelines across the whole of Myanmar starting from a new port-terminal at Kyaukphyu, near Sittwe….China’s activity in the Bay of Bengal is purely “defensive” [some say] but Indians versed in the “string of pearls” theory, which sees Chinese-built ports encircling India, will not be much comforted.

Amid the sometimes airy speculation, it is relatively easy to predict the effects on the repurposed waters of the bay. Yugraj Yadava, the director of an environmental watchdog in Chennai, says increased shipping is already eroding traditional livelihoods and polluting the sea. About 31% of the world’s coastal fishermen live and work on the Bay of Bengal, and they stand to lose huge tracts to the port-builders (and to rising sea levels, too). Mr Yadava says the bay still has some of the world’s healthiest natural fisheries, but they are under threat, not least from non-native species that stow away in long-haulers’ ballast.

Collisions between fishing vessels and commercial ships are becoming more frequent, as are snagged nets. All this will probably accelerate in the next few years. Before the Bay of Bengal falls victim to its new-found popularity, it might be good if some of its beneficiaries were to build a transnational maritime authority, to limit the damage.

Excerpts, The Bay of Bengal: New bay dawning, Economist,Apr. 27, 2013, at 40

Rio+20 Earth Summit; agenda and prospects

The Rio+20 United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development is much bigger than its [three] predecessors — Stockholm in 1972,-

Can NGOs be Foreign Agents? India Investigates Protests against its Nuclear Plant

The government intensified its drive against NGOs it suspects of being hostile to national interests, with the home ministry zeroing in on 77 organizations whose activities will be scrutinized following a crackdown on four NGOs for allegedly fanning protests against the Kudankulam nuclear plant.

A meeting chaired by finance minister Pranab Mukherjee on Tuesday was told by home ministry officials that the NGOs, mostly from the US and Europe, needed careful monitoring to check whether they were violating rules that guide funding and mandate their actions. The NGOs will be placed on a watch list with the external affairs ministry asked to ensure visa applications of their members are scanned….Most of the NGOs on the “watch list” receive funding from US and European countries…..However, Congress on Thursday supported the government’s moves with party spokesperson Manish Tewari saying that India’s attempts since the 1980s to achieve energy security was regularly thwarted by international interests. “This should be kept in mind by agencies probing the cases,” he said….People’s Movement Against Nuclear Energy (PMANE) convener S P Udaykumar has denied any links to foreign funds and has said he is associated with Swedish NGO Idea only in a research capacity. PMANE has served a defamation notice to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for blaming foreign NGOs for being insensitive to India’s energy needs.  Government sources insist the agitators are fundamentally opposed to nuclear energy and argue that while China races to increase its power capacity, India’s attempts to cover a growing deficit are being stalled. The PM’s remarks were followed by bank accounts of four NGOs being frozen. CBI and Tamil Nadu police have filed cases.

The tough talking against NGOs could also escalate into a diplomatic row with the government adamant on acting against those it believes are responsible for funding domestic NGOs involved in political or semi-political protests or activities.Local protests organized at Kudankulam have derailed the commissioning of the first 1000 mw unit of the 4780 mw nuclear power plant in Tamil Nadu. The Rs 14,500 crore nuclear project has been built with Russian collaboration. Two units are nearly complete but as of now the bare minimum staff needed to ensure the plant systems are in working order is able to access the site…..PMANE has denied allegations that it is being funded by American NGOs to organise the protest.

Excerpts, Government intensifies drive against NGOs, to scrutinize workings of 77 more organizations, The Economic Times of India, Mar. 2, 2012

Is India Abandoning Legal Action against Biopiracy?

From the Press Release of Environmental Support Group Feb. 7, 2012

In a shocking development, the Karnataka State Biodiversity Board [India] has resolved in its 19th meeting held on 20th January 2012 that it will not prosecute institutions and companies who violate the Biological Diversity Act.This highly controversial and illegal decision was taken in the context of reviewing [Environmental Support Group] ESG’s complaint of biopiracy against Monsanto and its Indian subsidiary Mahyco who along with their collaborators (University of Agricultural Sciences, Dharwar; Tamilnadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore; Indian Institute of Vegetable Research, Lucknow; Sathguru Foundation, Hyderabad; United States Agency for International Development and Cornell University, New York) wilfully violated the provisions of the Biological Diversity Act by illegally accessing 12 varieties of brinjal endemic to India and genetically modifying it, resulting in a patented product – B.t. Brinjal. This constitutes biopiracy, a criminal violation punishable with prison sentences.

The resolution passed by the Board is as follows: “The subject was deliberated and it was clarified that the subject comes under the purview of the National Biodiversity Authority. Therefore, it was resolved that it is for the National Biodiversity Authority to take necessary action at their end against institutions/companies regarding alleged violations of provisions under Biodiversity Act 2002.”

There is little doubt that this controversial resolution was passed to unhook Monsanto and its collaborators from biopiracy charges. It is tenable to draw such a conclusion as the current action agitates against the consistent position held by the Board that ESG’s complaint of biopiracy has merit and action must be initiated against the violators per the advise of the National Biodiversity Authority….This retrograde decision flies in the face of an assurance given to Parliament by Smt. Jayanti Natarajan, Indian Minister of State for Environment and Forests, as recently as on 28 September 2011. The Minister had stated that “(b)ased on preliminary information placed before it, the National Biodiversity Authority has recommended in principle to initiate legal action against alleged violators for violation of various provisions of the Biological Diversity Act, 2002”. …

This is more than likely to encourage more cases of biopiracy by corporates and thus seriously compromise biodiversity heritage and the food and social security that it extends to millions. Further, it will allow the loot of our natural wealth for maximising corporate profits by agricultural, biotech and pharmaceutical companies, while irreversibly jeopardising the economic and ecological security of present and future generations.

Excerpts from PRESS RELEASE, Karnataka abandons obligation to prosecute violators of Biological Diversity Act, Environmental Support Group, Feb. 7, 2012

The Future of Nuclear Industry after Fukushima:unbeatable renaissance

US investors have been far too focused on the domestic policy toward nuclear power plants and the long lead time required building new reactors. But the reality is that the nation has only one new reactor under construction right now and nine in advanced stages of planning. Compare that to the 27 reactors under construction in China and the 50 additional reactors in advanced stages of planning.  While the US has growth stories of its own, the growth story for nuclear power, much like the growth story for oil and natural gas demand, is centered in the emerging markets.

61 reactors are under construction around the world, with a total maximum capacity of 65 GW. Furthermore, as Jim Fink describes in his recent Investing Daily article, Investing in Nuclear Power Remains a Compelling Choice , in addition to the 61 nuclear reactors under construction right now, 150 more are planned to come online over the next 10 years.

China is home to almost half of all nuclear power capacity (measured in GW) under construction. If we add in India, Russia and South Korea, the total jumps to well over 80 percent. The US, France, Canada and other developed markets are building reactors, but these projects account for only a tiny share of the 65 GW of capacity under construction.

Emerging markets have been even more vociferous in their defense of nuclear power. Five days after the earthquake crippled the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant, China halted approvals for new reactors until a safety review could be conducted and new safety plans put in place. But inspections are already winding down, and the country plans to release its new safety plan and resume approvals in August. Senior Chinese officials have indicated that the country will meet its target of 70 GW of nuclear power capacity by 2020 despite the post-Fukushima freeze.  China can rightfully claim that its fleet of reactors is among the safest in the world because the country is building third-generation plants such as the Westinghouse AP1000, an advanced reactor that can be cooled without access to external power sources. This feature would have prevented the partial meltdown at Fukushima.

Russia also ordered a safety review of its nuclear power plants, but the government has unequivocally stated that it will not abandon nuclear power and will continue to build new power plants. Russia also continues to build plants in other nations, including planned Russian-designed reactors in Turkey and Belarus. In fact, the latter deal was inked after the earthquake hit Fukushima Dai-ichi.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has long been a proponent of nuclear power and has criticized Germany’s anti-nuclear stance on several occasions. For example, at a conference in late 2010, Putin chided German business leaders about the country’s plan to gradually phase out its nuclear reactors, observing that “The German public does not like the nuclear power industry for some reason” and adding “I cannot understand what fuel you will take for heating.” He followed up this comment with an incisive joke: You do not want gas, you do not develop the nuclear power industry, so you will heat with firewood?…Then you will have to go to Siberia to buy the firewood.”

But Germany’s decision to accelerate the closure of its nuclear plants will have Russian gas producers laughing all the way to the bank: Germany will need to import more natural gas to offset lost nuclear power capacity and provide baseload power to support the country’s growing dependence on renewable energy sources. Germany already imports more than half of its natural gas from Russia.  Russia’s aggressive build-out of nuclear plants in recent years is partly motivated by a desire to free up more natural gas for export. Ironically, this means that Russia is building nuclear power plants to support Germany’s efforts to shut down its domestic reactors.

Finally, India also ordered a safety review of its nuclear reactors, but Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has emphasized repeatedly that India must make use of nuclear power to meet its growing demand for electricity and emissions targets. Singh stated that safety standards for new Indian reactors would be world-class and that the country stands by its target of increasing nuclear capacity from about 5,000 megawatts ( MW ) today to 20,000 MW by 2020. Singh stated that further expansion is possible after 2020, though no firm decisions have been made.

In the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, many speculated that the Fukushima disaster would strangle the global nuclear renaissance. This jaundiced projection hasn’t come to fruition. Countries that were already anti-nuclear have hardened their stance, but the growth story is intact in China, India, Russia and other emerging markets. In short, the worst accident since Chernobyl has had a surprisingly modest impact on the global nuclear power industry.

Elliott Gue, Developing Markets Driving Growth for Nuclear Energy, NASDAQ, Aug. 3, 2011

Nuclear Deals: India and the Nuclear Suppliers Group

Confident in the large market it offers to the world’s nuclear suppliers, India has decided to shrug off new restrictions by a 46-nation cartel on the transfer of uranium enrichment and reprocessing technologies that potentially have military applications.

India, which has refused to sign the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) on the grounds that it is discriminatory, pulled off a diplomatic coup in 2008 by securing a special waiver from the 46-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).  Following a plenary in Noordwijk, the Netherlands, the NSG announced on Jun. 24 that it would “strengthen its guidelines on the transfer of sensitive enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technologies,” diluting the clean waiver granted to India and exempting it from full-scope international safeguards.  Nuclear energy experts in India told IPS that the NSG’s move may be prompted by commercial concerns and an attempt to squeeze India into buying nuclear equipment in a market rapidly narrowing down in the wake of the Fukushima disaster.

“Given the present climate for nuclear energy, countries like France, Russia and the United States, which have already signed major nuclear commerce deals with India, are unlikely to back off”….India has ambitious plans to raise its nuclear power generation from the current 4.7 gigawatts to over 20 Gw by 2020. Besides Areva, Russia’s Rosatom and General Electric from the U.S. are among corporations negotiating for deals worth more than 100 billion dollars.

In an apparent warning to the NSG, India’s foreign secretary Nirupama Rao told television interviewers on Sunday that there are “leverages” that could be applies to countries unwilling to enter into nuclear commerce with India.  Rao said the U.S., Russia and France had, since the NSG announced its new policy, made known that they would stand by their commitments to India.  French ambassador to India Jerome Bonnafont confirmed in a Jul. 1 press statement that “this NSG decision in no way undermines the parameters of our bilateral cooperation,” and that France remained “committed to the full implementation of our cooperation agreement on the development of peaceful uses of nuclear energy signed on Sep. 30, 2008.”Coming after the decision of exemption from the full-scope safeguards clause, adopted in favour of India in September 2008, it (NSG decision) does not undermine the principles of this exemption,” the statement said.

Excerpt, Ranjit Devraj, INDIA: Unfazed by Nuclear Suppliers’ New Rules, Inter Press Service, July 6, 2011